Tuesday, July 18, 2000

Winning at Roulette

Contents:
Initial Rant / Introduction
Essential Overview
The Data
The Programs used on My HP48gx; as Crude Flowcharts
---

Initial Rant / Introduction
---
i found a book the other day that reminded me of a 'theory' involving statistical manipulation that i'd been thinking about for a long time, and this brief article in:
The Pig that Wants to be Eaten /
100 [ Thought ( Gedankenversuch ) ] Experiments for The Armchair Philosopher
Assembled by Julian Baggini © 2005

---
...discussed it without a deeper search for it's possible implications...
---
So i began to consider them...
The essential idea was that if you're standing beside a roulette wheel and you become aware that there has been an unusual sequence of 'Reds' that have come up...
A Black should be long overdue, and that statistically,
it would be prudent to bet a large sum on Black. ( ??? )
---
The article insisted however that each spin entails it's own probability factor,
which for a Roulette Wheel, the chances of Red or Black coming up, on any given spin, would be about 9 in 19, or not quite half...
Because-- of the two green slots, Zero and ZeroZero.
As much as you think Black is 'Overdue' for any given sequence of spins...
And It might well be overdue... Each spin must be considered on its own merits...
---
So i wrote a program on my HP48gx Programable Calculator to check this out...
And sure enough, there was no perceivable advantage to betting a constant amount on the under-represented colour.
---
Are you surprised by this?
i was surprised by this...
But i also got to thinking...
Just which spins are you considering...???
That is; Are you considering the last 6 spins, or the last 60, 600
or 6000...???
Each spin on a roulette wheel takes about 2 minutes to complete it's cycle
from taking in all the bets,
to determining the winner,
to paying off everyone,
or collecting their loses,
to starting over again...
So there is this 'Time Constraint' to how many spins you can consider...
Plus -- The Casino's generally don't like people that are playing a 'System'...
So that they may scowl and grunt when you begin taking notes or entering data into a lap top computer...
So-- If there is a System that can exploit some statistical weakness in the operation of the Roulette Wheel; We're going to have to keep in simple, Simple enough so that you can work it in your head.
---
Is there such a System?
i think that there is...
But i haven't quite worked it out -Completely- yet... !!! ???
What i do have; Are several pages of VERY promising data, and some numbers that seem to suggest that,
given my present betting suggestions,
You can CONSISTENTLY WIN...
a very small amount per spin.
---
How small...?
About per spin, when betting with a 'Base Unit' of 1$...???
If your base unit was $1000, then you'd consistently win $60 per spin.
---
It's VERY IMPORTANT to remember though...
That this is Gambling...
You can not control ( by this method ) the outcome of individual spins,
So that there is ALSO The Possibility that you could lose your Alpha Kitty...!!!
---
The Alpha Kitty is the amount that you start out with.
For all my Analytic Runs,
that consisted of a very unrealistic number of spins,
in the thousands...
i started each with $300, and usually... Usually won another $300, consistently...
UNLESS--
And this is the curious part...
If the number of Reds or Blacks suddenly flew off in some VERY Anomolous direction,
Then the System faltered...!!!
It Crashed.
The Kitty was lost.
---

BUT --
If the Reds & Blacks behaved themselves, and stuck within their statistical range of normalacies...
Then i would consistently win.
Consistently.
---
It would be a Roller Coaster.
I'm not saying it's NOT a Roller Coaster...!!!
You win some, you lose some...
But you win more often than you lose...!
---
That is...
Let me tell you the secret.
You don't actually win more often than you lose...
The system predicts whether a Black or Red will come up next,
But it's Not any better than Chance at this...!!!
---
But this is THE CRAZIEST PART...
When i set up Two Players,
The Dumb Player picks randomly and bets randomly,
It Consistently Loses...
But The Smart Player; Using this System, predicts which Colour will come up,
and bets ACCORDINGLY-- It Consistently Wins...!!!
---
The SECRET is the BETTING.
The Sledge Hammer approach to this is that;
The greater the SUPPOSED CHANCE of either Black or Red will come up,
You BET More...
So if for a given stretch of spins:
Red has come up 8 times,
and Black has come up 4 times...
You would bet a comparitively Larger Amount on Black,
Than if Black had come up 6 times...
---
That should seem simple and obvious.
---
But how much should you bet...???
This gave me alot of trouble.
As i mentioned before, It would depend, statistically on how many spins you were considering-
If you're only considering the last 12 spins, Red might seem highly OverRepresented, but if you're considering 6000 spins, Red might be sorely UnderRepresented...!!!
???
Allowing for this; The thoughtful person would conclude that the system couldn't possibly work...!!!
But the data i've accumulated seems to unequivocally suggest that it DOES Work...!!!
And -- i also suspect that if i could refine The Betting Scale,
i could win more consistently, with greater results...
---
What do i have so far?
i started out with a straight coin flip, and consistently got results like:
Smart player 1524 -vs- Dumb player 109
Smart player 1788 -vs- Dumb player 892
Dumb did occasionally win on these early trials...
But not by the amounts that Smart was winning, when Smart won...
---
One thing i noticed, was the variance of Maximum to Minimum Wins for Dumb when i played with 500 flips. Dumb's range was consistently around 600...
So that if it's best number of wins during a given trail of 500 flips was 142, it's loses would be around -533.
Smart; on the other foot, was all over the place...!
If it won 2486, it's Max' would be 2806 and it's Min' would be .5.
If it won 30,258, it's Max' winning would be 33,014 with a lowest point of 0.
In other words; The Dumb Player, picking Heads or Tails and Betting Randomly,
Won and Lost Randomly, adhereing to Statistical Probabilities...
While The Smart Player Bucked the Statistical Probibilities...!!!
---
Another point that i was considering, and i still don't have a good answer for this...
Is that -Although- The System allows you to Win Consistently, you still are permitted the possibility of losing.
Losing Everything!
So that-- If you are winning, when should you bail out?
One suggestion is that, if you double your money, you take you winnings, put them in a pocket, and continue to play with your original alpha kitty amount... So that your winnings are protected. If you lose the kitty at some point after that. You're done.
---
Another idea is that the winning 'Curve' or 'Slope' will tell you if you're above or below what you 'should be' winning at any given point in your run.
If you're below the slope, you keep playing,
If you're above the slope, and it is honorable to bail out.
But to bail out when you losing a little, as the system has warned you, repeatedly, may happen...
Makes you a Chicken Shit.
If you're going to ride this Roller Coaster, you have to have the nerve to stay on for the whole ride,
Jumping out before you get to the top will only cause traumatic injuries.
The trouble is though... Where is the top...???
Some trials have shown VERY high winnings,
Others have shown modest winnings,
and some have taken all my money.
---
After a few days,
i looked up the equation for
Pascal's Triangle,
which is used to determine statistcal probabilities...
The equation is:
((n+1)!)/(k!((n+1)-k)!)
n is the number of coin flips
k is the number of heads
The result is the statistical chances of the k number of heads coming up for n coin flips.
---
Given this; and more tinkering...
My last version ( of many ) allowed that if:
There was a Zero difference between Reds & Blacks
i would bet 1 Monetary Unit.
( i've been told that for the Casino's around Spokane Washington, you have to place a minimum bet of 3$-- So Either 3$ would replace this minimum amount, or 3$ would become your Basic Monetary Unit... Which would mean that i would suggest that your alpha kitty expand to $900, instead of $300...??? )
If there is a Difference of Two, then you bet 3 Units.
Also; For this system, i was considering a Set of 12 Spins, that were ongoing...
So that each last spin is added to The Set, and the 13th previous spin is deleted...
Which means that ( work this out for youself ) there is never the case of 1 too many Reds or Blacks...!
( Or any odd number, for that matter...!!! )
This also means that when you're considering the next spin resulting set...???...
That set of 12 spins may either be with the same number of Reds & Blacks,
or Two more of The Desired Red or Black
or the Undesired Reds or Blacks...
and this comes into how many good sets may be considered when you're determining how much to bet... !
This is one of the mysterious parts that still needs considerable work...!!! )
A Difference of 4 means that you bet 3 Units, ( same as 2 ! )
A Difference of 6, means that you bet 7 Units.
A Difference of 8, means that you bet 20 Units.
A Difference of 10, means that you bet 101 Units.
A Difference of 12, means that you bet 85 Units...!!!
---
You would think,
And i mentioned this earlier,
That if there was a String of Reds, say 12 Reds for our set of 12 Considered Spins...
You would Bet ALOT on Black...
But you have to ALSO remember that EACH INDIVIDUAL SPIN is not concerned with the Set...!!!
It could be Red, It could be Black, It could be Green, The ball may fly off the wheel.
The System breaks down when Statistical Probabilities become too improbable...!!!
---
The System somehow beats the Odds by Ignoring the Individual Spins,
and taking advantage of an artifical,
and entirely arbitrarily chosen number of spins within a given set.
---
If you win any money using this system, be sure and leave a comment.

---

Essential Idea
---
The Initial Idea for this Scheme was that;
If you’re gambling at a Roulette Wheel and you notice that there has been an unusual number of Reds coming up,
Then—Statistically; there should be a greater chance of Blacks as the next ‘Number’ that comes up.
The ‘Book’ [ Common -Educated- Wisdom ] Says tha;
‘No’- Each Spin is governed by it’s own unique Statistical Probabilities...
Essentially 9 in 19 for either Red or Black, for any given Spin.
Note: Because an American Roulette Wheel has The Zero & ZeroZero Slots,
The Chances of a Red or Black coming up, is not precisely One Half.
---
As it turns out, Computer simulations of these phenomena, and the ability to predict the colour of an up-coming ‘Number’ are within the constraints of chance.
That is: You can not reliably predict the colour of an up-coming ‘Number’.
This defies reason; or the common sense of simple minds, But it seems to be so.
---
Curiously; When you place wagers of A Constant Value, based on this premise, you will do no better than the fool standing next to you.
BUT- If you Vary the Amount of your Wagers, Depending upon The Perceived Likelihood of a Colour coming up...
i.e.; If there has been way too many Reds during the most recent sequence of Spins, Then you would expect a Black to appear ‘Next’- And so you would base the Amount of your Wager on How Many Reds, Disproportionate to Blacks, have Appeared.
The Greater the Disproportionality, The greater your Wager.
Simple enough.
---
THE DATA

---
When i first started playing around with this;
i created a series of programs, continuously being ‘refined’ that began with a simple coin flip,
and a program that would determine The Disproportionality of Heads to Tails and Then Wager Varying Amounts.
Thousands of Trials were run and the results are as follows:
Note: The exact amount and ‘Theory’ behind how much The Smart Player was Wagering varied considerably, as in the early explorations, i had no idea what this formulation should be- The only consistent element was that The Dumb Player; Picked Head or Tails Randomly and Wagered Randomly,
within the same range as The Smart Player.

Run A:
The first trial i recorded shows that The Dumb Player,
after 10,003 Flips
Won by 46 Wagering Haematids...!!!
Smart = 5027 : Dumb = 5073
-
Run B:
Dumb bets 1 per Flip.
Smart bets .25 x ABS(H-T)
Number of Heads 5022 : Tails 4978
Smart wins with an accumulated sum of 1492
Dumb loses with –48
Let me remind you that these numbers do not reflect the number times Smart or Dumb chose the ‘Correct’ Side of the Coin, But are the amounts ( in Dollars/Haematids ) that each has won by placing Strategic Bets.
-
Run C:
Dumb bets 1 per Flip
Smart bets ABS(H-T)
Added or Subtracted depending upon whether Smart or Dumb Picks the House’s Flip.
Number of Heads 5074 : Tails 4926
Smart wins with 15,952 ( !!! )
Dumb loses with –96
-
Run D:
Dumb bets a Randomly Selected Amount: 1 to 3 per Flip
Smart bets ABS(H-T) x 3
Number of Heads 5074 : Tails 4926
Smart wins with 30,606
Dumb loses with 17,030
-
Run E:
Dumb bets a Randomly Selected Amount: 1 or 2 per Flip
Smart bets ABS(H-T) x 2
Number of Heads 245 : Tails 255
( Reduced to 500 Flips )
Dumb wins with 731!
Smart Loses with 600...
Curiously: The highest Dumb got was 731, rising sharply towards the end of the run,
While Smart got all the way up to 1,202, then slowly lost ground to 600...???

-
Run Eb:
Number of Heads 266 : Tails 234
Smart wins with 1,524
Dumb loses with 109
-
Run Ec:
Number of Heads 239 : Tails 261
Dumb wins with 1,023 – Highest Amount 1,088 / Lowest –63
Smart loses with 984 – Highest Amount 1,500 / Lowest 2
-
Run F:
Smart only bets if ABS(H-T) > 4
Number of Heads 232 : Tails 268
Smart wins with 1,788 : Highest 2,324 Lowest 0
Dumb loses with 892 : Highest 1,147 Lowest –64
---
At this point i thought that i’d try actually flipping a coin and using my scheme to predict the outcomes, and betting accordingly...
Because of my general impatience in these matters, and limited to the length of the paper in my notebook, i only tried 29 Flips.
The final result was Zero Dollars acquired, from a starting amount of Zero.
The most intermediate amount accumulated was 20, the lowest –8.
-
Run G:
( Return to Calculator Simulations )
Here i tried to fine tune the amount wagered by taking

the ABS(H-T) x (ABS(H-T)/2) and betting that amount...
Number of Heads 221 : Tails 279 -
Note The High Anomalous Difference of 58...?
Smart wins with 39,744 : Maximum 42,587 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with 2,294 : Maximum 2,294 Minimum –241
-
Run Gb:
Number of Heads 258 : Tails 242 – NonAnomalous Difference
Smart wins with 2,486 : Maximum 2,806 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with –489 : Maximum 142 Minimum –533
-
Run Gc:
Number of Heads 255 : Tails 245 – NonAnomalous Difference
Smart wins with 2,595 : Maximum 2,862 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with 315 : Maximum 448 Minimum –281
-
Run Gd:
Number of Heads 251 : Tails 249 – NonAnomalous Difference
Smart wins with 2,112 : Maximum 3,619 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with 288 : Maximum 366 Minimum –291
-
Run Ge:
Number of Heads 276 : Tails 224 –Anomalous Difference of 52
Smart wins with 30,258 : Maximum 33,015 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with 1,138 : Maximum 1,196 Minimum –289
-
Run Gf:
Number of Heads 257 : Tails 243 – NonAnomalous Difference
Smart wins with 1,643 : Maximum 1,643 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with -28 : Maximum 423 Minimum -60
Something kind of quirky occurred in these last five trials;
The Range of Dumb’s winnings & loses was around ‘600’ for each...???
And Smart never lost money on any of them...!!!

---
Roulette Simulations:
-
Here i switched from a Coin Flip to a more Accurate Roulette Simulator.
The Generator that i used;

Simply made a Random number from 1 to 38
Then subtracted 2,
Leaving 1 to 36 ( MOD 2 ) for Red’s & Black’s
And –1 and 0 for Zero & ZeroZero
The Expected Results for a Series of 380 Spins,
should have been 180 Red’s : 180 Blacks : 20 Green’s.
The Program Generated:
189 Red’s : 163 Blacks : 28 Green’s
181 Red’s : 176 Blacks : 23 Green’s
This was determined by a panel of judges to be acceptable.
---
Run H:
Number of Red’s 234 : Blacks 238
Smart wins with 539 / Maximum 2,601 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with –520 / Maximum 42 Minimum -1032
-
Run I:
Number of Red’s 221 : Blacks 252
Smart wins with 4,055 / Maximum 5,047 Minimum 0
Dumb loses with –910 / Maximum 13 Minimum -910
-

Run J:
Number of Red’s 233 : Blacks 242
Smart wins with 1,324 / Maximum 3,004 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with –1,288 / Maximum 3 Minimum –1,477
-

Run K:
Number of Red’s 237 : Blacks 241
Smart wins with 772 / Maximum 1,779 Minimum 0
Dumb loses with –619 / Maximum 44 Minimum -672
-
Run L:
Number of Red’s 238 : Blacks 230
Dumb wins with -32 / Maximum 0 Minimum -36
Smart loses with –679 / Maximum 2,451 Minimum –789
This was a Very Quirky Run...

Smart is all over the place...???
Should it be ignored,

or is it the exception that (dis(proves)) the rule...???
-

Run M:
Number of Red’s 231 : Blacks 241
Smart wins with 1,001 / Maximum 1,093 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with –50 / Maximum 9 Minimum -50
-

Run N:
Number of Red’s 239 : Blacks 237
Smart wins with 753 / Maximum 1,060 Minimum .5
Dumb loses with –40 / Maximum 5 Minimum -44
---
Up to here; Smart and Dumb started wagering with Zero in their Personal Accounts,
Hereafter;
Smart starts with $100
Also:
Dumb is no longer playing. Smart is playing against The House.
Smart Wagers ABS(R-B)/VarianceFactor x ABS(R-B)
The VarianceFactor is an arbitrary amount that i was fooling around with to find something that 'Worked Best'...???
Difference: is the Difference between Red & Black at the end of the Trial.
Kitty: is the Amount in ( $ ) that was won at the end of the Trial.
Max and Min are the Amounts at those extremeums during the trial.

---
Red : Difference : Black : Kitty : VF : Maximum : Minimum
131 Spins per Trial.

66 : (1) : 65 : $205 : 5 : 205 : 60
85 : (39!) : 46 : $-3338!!! : 5 : 109 : -3354
59 : (13) : 72 : $249 : 5 : 349 : -291
63 : (5) : 68 : $227 : 5 : 231 : 77

-
From here: Difference refers to The Maximum Difference

-
70 : (14) : 61 : $196 : 5 : 229 : 1
70 : (16) : 61 : $215 : 5 : 215 : -45
75 : (23) : 56 : $69 : 5 : 165 : -551
Even after dropping to -551, it recovers to lose only 31$
-
70 : (12) : 61 : $202 : 4 : 240 : 63
69 : (10) : 62 : $197 : 4 : 197 : 76
60 : (8) : 63 : $207 : 4 : 207 : 86
67 : (11) : 64 : $217 : 4 : 218 : 34
68 : (7) : 63 : $172 : 4 : 180 : 93

-
70 : (16) : 61 : $403! : 3 : 403 : -130
64 : (7) : 63 : $238 : 3 : 238 : 91
72 : (13) : 59 : $40! : 3 : 179 : 13
66 : (9) : 65 : $274 : 3 : 274 : 49
-
500 Spins per Trial.
253 : (20) : 247 : $1,445 : 3 : 1,460 : 21
262 : (33) : 238 : $924 : 3 : 1084 : -2062!!!
-
Safety Valve Installed to prevent Cascade Failures
during Highly Anomalous Series of Reds or Blacks...???

-
234 : (33) : 266 : $1,259! : 3 : 1,367 : -13
245 : (22) : 255 : $-397! : 3 : 529 : -397
257 : (38) : 243 : $613 : 3 : 613 : -1418!!!
-
Removed Safety Valve...!!!
Around here i was also playing around with a Limit of how much The Wager could be,

as a % of what was in The Kitty,
Such that if The Wager was more than 80% of The Kitty,
You could only Bet 80%.
This amount varied from 25% to 80% with unspecified results...???
-
255 : (22) : 245 : $125 : 2 : 130 : 39
242 : (22) : 258 : $0! : 2 : 197 : 0
239 : (26) : 261 : $539! : 2 : 584 : 57
249 : (12) : 251 : $672! : 5 : 672 : -130
70 : (16) : 61 : $403! : 4 : 403 : 100
---
At this point i was also beginning to wonder about things like;
After 'x' number of spins, how much should i have won...???
Is there a Curve or a Slope that would predict this amount...???
When would it be wise or prudent to quit...???
-
New System considers only The Last 12 Spins
Alpha Kitty = $100
Betting Factor is 2, which doesn't seem to make any difference as to what it is...???
-

Kitty at End : Max : Min : MaxProfit/MaxLoss
-
Zeroed Out - Max was 134
$208
: 218 : 56 : 118/44
$99 : 138 : 56 : 118/44
$100 : 166 : 48 : 66/52
$116 : 162 : 82 : 62/18
$214 : 250 : 96 : 150/4
$133 : 210 : 64 : 110/46
$202 : 202 : 98 : 102/2
Zeroed Out @ 38 Spins : Max 124 : 24/100
Zeroed Out @ 74 Spins : Max 126 : 26/100
$111 : 134 : 18 : 34/82
$69 : 104 : 48 : 4/52
-
This set of trials went pretty badly,
Even assuming that the player were able to jump out at The Most Opportune Time,
The amount of profit is pretty dismal.
For my 2 Cents worth, if i'm going to stand at a Roulette Wheel all evening, i would want to wipe The House's ass with sandpaper, and this technique doesn't seem to be owning up to this desired potential.
-
Examining the Odds with Pascal's Triangle...

-
This latest incarnation of The System only considers The Last 12 Spins,
Such that any probabilities considered would fall within this range...
-
There is a 1 in 4096 of 12 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 341 of 11 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 62 of 10 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 19 of 9 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 8 of 8 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 5 of 7 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 4 of 6 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 5 of 5 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 8 of 4 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 19 of 3 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 62 of 2 Red's showing up...
There is a 1 in 341 of 1 Red showing up...

-
The Formula for this is:
! means: somenumber multipled by all the numbers less than it, to 1
e.g.,
6! = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
( NumberOfMarbles + 1 )!
Divided by:
TheNumberOfRedMarbles!

times
((NumberOfMarbles + 1)
minus
TheNumberOfRedMarbles)!
-
Or:
(m+1)! / (r!*((m+1)-r)!
The result is the probability of That number of Red Marbles ( r )

Occurring in a group of Randomly selected Marbles
Of a predetermined quantity ( m ).
-
The Probability of a Red or Black coming up on a Roulette Wheel is 9 in 19
Slightly less than '50/50'
Because of the two Green Slots:
The Probability of a Green coming up is 1 in 19.
The Probability of The Ball flying off The Wheel is...
( i don't think you can bet on that, so why worry about it...? )
-
My notes become very confusing here...
But i seem to recall that i was thinking that if there were an abundance of Reds,
i would consider not just the probability of a Black coming up,

But The Set of 12 Spins showing 1 new Black or 1 old Black coming up...???
As The 13th Spin would be discarded,
The next Spin could Equalize or Destabilize the Number of Red's to Blacks...???
-
It made sense to me then.
-
So the numbers i cam up with were:
Because of the way The Set of 12 Discards and Adds Spins,
You can only have Differential Quantities of 2 MOD = 1
???
ABS (Red - Black) = 0; then Bet 1
If it's 2; then Bet 3
If it's 4; then Bet 3
If it's 6; then Bet 7
If it's 8; then Bet 20
If it's 10; then Bet 101
If it's 12; then Bet 85
( !!! ??? )
-
Trials:

-
Alpha Kitty = $300
Number of Spins = 5000
Kitty = Amount at end of the Trial
Max = Maximum Amount won during Trail
Min = Minimum Amount during Trial
Gain as Fraction = Actual Winnings / Actual Losses
Gain per Spin ( Max =

Amount expected to win; Per Spin; if you baled out at Zenith
Gain per Spin ( End =

Amount expected to win, Per Spin; if you hung on to the End
Hitz = Number of Correct Colour Guess' :

...Smart vs The House as a Fraction
Pure chance of Hitz is .4737 and it doesn't seem to significantly deviate from this...
Although- It is always above it...???

-
Kitty : Max : Min : GaF : GpS(Max) : GpS(End) : Hitz
-
$571 : 766 : 158 : 3.28 : .09c : .05c : .4832
Zeroed Out @ 2155 Spins
$0 : 680 : -19 : -- : .18c : .00c : .4863
$700 : 706 : 121 : 2.268 : .08c : .08c : .4772
Zeroed @ 979 Spins
$0 : 483 : -3 : 26.143!!! : .19c : .00c : .4863
This is apparently a classic case of Catastrophic Cascade Failure due to a Very Anomalous Chromatic Distribution...!!!

A plot of this Trial shows that fell VERY Quickly after hitting a local peak of 293...
So ignoring the Catastrophic Element-

The Gain as a Fraction would be about 26.143
Which is absurdly high.
$654 : 727 : 170 : 3.285 : .08c : .07c : .4944

After 25,000 Spins for these latest Trials,
It would seem that;
Using this System;

The Smart Player should expect a solid return of 6 to 7 Cents for every Dollar Wagered.
( That would mean $1.06 to $1.07 per Spin, before deducting the Wagered Amount )
Obviously then;

Betting $1000 as a 'Unit' Wager, you could expect to Win $60 to $70 per Spin.
-
The Programs

as Crude Flow Charts
---
[SmartPlayer]
Calculate Red-Black; Absolute ( Make Positive ) for any given Spin.
These Quantities; Red & Black are Tallied within The Set of 12 which is also ongoing.
For each Spin that The House Makes; The Oldest Spin ( #13 ) is Discarded, and the New Spin is added to the Set. Then The Red & Black Quantities are reassessed.
If this Difference between Red & Black is 0; Then a Bet of 1 is made.
If the difference is 2; The Bet is 3.
4 is 3, 6 is 7, 8 is 20, 10 is 101 and 12 is 85.
If there are too many Reds, Bet on Black.
And Vice Versa.
You may also want to build in a safety feature that doesn't allow you to bet more than is in your Kitty, or a substantial fraction/percentage thereof.
This threshold is something that you, yourself, must agonize over.
-
[HouseRouletterSpinner]
Randomly Generate a Number between 1 & 38
Subtract 2
If the result is -1 or 0, then it's presumed to be either Zero or ZeroZero on The Roulette Wheel. It is discarded and no number's are added to The Set of 12.
Otherwise The Number is Sieved through a Modulus Two Function which will make it a 1 for Red or a 0 for Black.
This result is attached to a prearranged list of 1's and 0's
{ 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 } ( The Set of 12 at the Beginning )
The oldest is Discarded from one end, While the new Red or Black, 1 or 0 is attached to the other end.
The 1's are counted and assigned to The Variable 'Red'.
The 0's are counted and assigned to The Variable 'Black'.

[TheLoopOfSpins]
Determine How Many Spins you would Like...
Store The Alpha Kitty with The Desired Amount.
Store The Initial :
The Set of 12
Store Zero in Hitz If you're Interested in that Variable.
Store/Initialize all The Other Variables that you'd like to Track.
Generate The Smart Player's Prediction and Wager
Generate The House's Spin Colour
Did The Smart Player Guess Correctly?
If so; Add The Wager to The Kitty.
Otherwise; Subtract The Wager from The Kitty.
Post all Variables that you'd like to view during The Trial.
If Kitty equals Zero =
Abort!
Otherwise; Repeat until All Spins are completed.
-
That's all i have...
There's more in the Directory; But it's just a load of crap.
-
Does this System really work?
Does it...???
No-
Really, i'm asking you...
Do you think it actually returns a small,

but consistent profit margin...???
eh?
--- --- ---
Supplement / APPENDIX Ω

After receiving and analyzing a significant amout of critical exposition;
[ see:
HP48 NewsGroup: Can You Win @ Roulette...??? ( part a )
&
HP48 NewsGroup: Can You Win @ Roulette...??? ( part b ) ]
---
i have decided that The Key Ingredient for Winning at Roulette is not The Guessing of Which Colour will come up at all...
That may be Completely RANDOMIZED--
---
The Key--
If there is one;
Is in The Betting;
And The Scheme here that i've rediscovered, ( Sort of Vaguely )

Is known, i think, as "Doubling Up".
Also called:
The Martingale System or The O'Hare Straddle
---
This latest round of Simulations that i've done;
Tried several new 'Dumb' Attacks:
Just to make sure that the Simulator was still working, i retried The Smart Emulator...
Each Run consisted of 500 Roulette Spins,

And each Trial consisted of 5 of these Runs,
So that Each Smart or Dumb Emulator got to play with 2,500 Roulette Spins.
---
Smart Zeroed Out on two of the Trials,

And for the other 3, Won $20, $105 & $214.
It continued to look, both; Somewhat Inconsistent--

Yet Optimistically Promising.
Just to remind you;
This Approach consists of Betting on the Deficient Colour; Proportional to it's Deficiency,
In Increments of { 1 3 3 7 20 101 85 }
---
Dumb a) Bet on the Excessive Colour; Proportional to it's Deficiency.
It Won/Lost $-13, $+52, $-141, $-74 & $-161
It never Zeroed Out, But it only Won Meagerly...???
Is there something to Betting on The Deficient Colour...???
Probably not...
The Maximum Zenith's for Smart was 387.4,
While Max Zenith's for Dumb a) was 366.7...
Not terribly different...???
---
Dumb b) Bet on The Excessive Colour; Anti Proportionally!
Disaster! It Zeroed out every time...!
BUT...!!! Before Zeroing out--
It's Average Maximum Zenith's were $1,144.2...!
All Maximum Zenith's were above The Alpha Kitty of $300.
Way better than Smart or Dumb a)'s...???
---
Dumb c) Bet on The Deficient Colour; Anti Proportionally...
Again-- It Zeroed Out for Every Trial...

With a Maximum Zenith of Minus $8...!!!
It's difficult to make any conclusive denouement's when the data isn't being the least consistent or even 'Trying' to form a pattern of some kind...!!!
---

Dumb d) Bet Randomly on Red or B-; Proportionally to The Deficient Ratios...
Proportional Wagering Pays off...
$47, $141, $445, $51 with one loss of $-33.
These are Winnings Over The Alpha Kitty...
( More than what The Player brought in )
---
Dumb e) Bet Randomly; Anti Proportionally.
Zeroed Out Every time, But with a Maximum Zenith Average of $93.
---
Dumb f) Bet Randomly; Randomly from Proportional List
The Wild Card
Zero's Out for 4 of the Trials,
But Wins one Trial with $1,391...!!!
On One of the Zeroed Trials, it got up to $842 ( Winnings )
The Average Maximum Zenith was $482.6
---
Dumb g) Bet Randomly; Wagering Cyclically...
Wagering Forward & Backwards { 2 4 6 8 10 12 }
Wins $32
Wagering only Forward; 2 to 12, 2 to 12...
Wins $18
---
Dumb h) Bet Randomly: Wagering Modulus Mirror Clock
What i mean by Modulus Mirror Clock is that the Wagers are arranged around a illusive Clock:
{ 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 64 32 16 8 4 }
The Net Effect is that while an incremental amount is advanced, or decremented, in units of '1', the amount, taken from The Clock's Face Values, changes by only 'One Step' per Spin.
Since this Set contains 7 unique elements, The Modulus Set Limit would be "7".
---
The Program that i used to accomplish this is:
[ Mod~ ]
Incremental Number = 'n' Store
Modulus Set Limit = 'm' Store
IF m <>
THEN ABS(m) + 2 = 'm' Store
END
( m * 2 ) - 1 = 'i' Store ( Integer Modulus )
MOD(n-1,i) + 1 = 'r' Store
IF r > m
THEN ( m * 2 ) - r = 'r' Store
END
r is The Answer
---
This overly complicated approach resulted in One Trial that Won $1,536,
While the other 4 trials Zeroed Out with Maximum Zenith's of; $102, $1,348; $358 & $132.
---
What does this all mean...???
Is there some Crazy Variation on 'Doubling Up' that actually works...???
---
Future Examiners...
Good Luck!
---

Monday, July 17, 2000

Maturity Index / Verified-Citizenship

From 12 Ideas that May Change The World...???

Maturity Index

It's been awhile since a small child has taken his mothers Berretta to school and blown off the elbows of her class bully... But the circumstances of this situation are still with us, in a variety of different appointments...
What most annoys me with these conditions is that the child is often, summarily; And without any measurable reasoning: Tried as An Adult!
It has always seemed to me that the idea of treating children any differently from adults, In the First Place was suspect...! -- But given that it has been traditional for such a long time to treat children as children... We are stuck with the initial problem.
As such:
It seems to me that we should have A Test of sorts to determine The Maturity of any given individual, and based on that; Assign that Person a Maturity Index. This might be thought of as that Persons Citizenship-Age... Or Caste.
There would be essentially 2 Castes for this argument, right now... But it might be worthwhile to consider other applications for this Maturity Index, and create a broader range of Castes for each particular Novelty.
The Two Castes that i'm concerned with now; Are Child & Adult.
Anyone; Irregardless of their age could apply to take The Maturity Index Test, and then; based on their score; Be awarded Adult Status, or not.
A Unusually Bright 7_yr. old could then become an Adult; And as such, sign legal documents for herself, Vote in National Elections ( for all the good it would do ) And have sex with much older men.
Also: It might be allowed that this Awarded Citizenship could be taken away from a fully grown adult-- If; At the behest of another person, and a court order; The Person of Questionable Judgment would be ReTested and if found Wanting; Be made a Ward of someone with Adult Status.
---
What is perhaps the difficulty in this idea is:
What would you test for...???
General Intelligence...? Cultural Literacy...? Financial Awareness...? Cynicism...?
What is Maturity anyways...???
---
It might also be necessary to design The Test so that; Under court order, If a person were to be required to take the test, That they would not be able to Flunk It by cheating...!
Such a situation may arise when someone that well understood to have a high degree of maturity, but is lacking in yearly growth, is put upon by another, and then pleads that they are actually An Innocent Child...!!!
In such a case; The True Victim, would be desirous of proving that an adult is hiding under the covers of a childish appearance...!
---
Other pitfalls...
A 6_yr. old prodigy may be drafted in a time of war.
Many people, now considered Adults; would be found to be children, that need to be cared for indefinitely.
Children would become intolerable in their constant demands to be treated as equals to their parents.
Adult criminals would be given ridiculously light sentences for atrocious crimes...!
Car manufacturers would have to design cars suitable for children to drive.
---
And so on...

Friday, July 14, 2000

Taxivators...

From 12 Inventions that May Change The World...!!!

Taxivators...!

This is pretty much lifted right off of Star Trek,
But i think we could push it a little bit further,
By putting tubes in all office buildings, and then interconnecting them, not only with one another, but with other cities and countries...!
So that you could step into a Taxivator on the 6th floor of your Office Building, and go all the way to Japan or France...!
With all these tubes underground, we could also put all the overhead wiring down there, eliminating telephone poles and those cancerous high voltage towers...!
The tubes could also contain all of garbage collection services, Mail, Grocery & Department Store Deliveries...!
The Taxivators would be semi-autonomous; In that they would cooperate with a central directory so that they could pick up people along the way, just like a regular 'Elevator', and deliver people to their destinations in an efficient manner-- But the Individual Taxivators would watch out for other Taxivators and choose their own routes when they sense that trouble is brewing...???
Most of the Technology for something like this already exists... except for a really efficient tunnel building system...???

PreCogitator Version Alpha

Here are some Ideas / Suggestions of How
The Next Generations of Computers
Might be Configured...

  1. i should first of all note that i'm Very annoyed with the lack of progress in the development of computers & their software...! i don't think this is accidental...!!! -- Just imagine for a moment what would happen if a genuinely intelligent PsuedoIntelligent Robot Mind were to become available to a Free Market Capitalist Economy--? Every Industrial Management Sector would replace all their workers, which consist of at least 80% of The American Work Force...! Why isn't this being discussed...??? Is anyone ready for this...??? What makes this all the more critical-- Is that; i believe that these Robot Brains are already available; But are being suppressed by someone, somehow... But that it's only a matter of time, days or weeks... ( ? ) ...before the cat is out of the kitchen...!
  2. This new computer / precogitator will have a collection of Central Processing Units, Rather than the Bottled Neck version commonly Available... While some computers have dedicated Math CoProcessors, or Video Cards & Such... The next generation will have a wide variety of specialized Assistants that process spoken language, both to understand & create it. It will also be able to interpret Visual images, recognize faces and identify common objects & 'scenes' to determine whether something anomalous is occurring! There will also be assistants to 'consider' things in the background of normal activities...
  3. Amoung all these specialized CPU's; Will be 3 SubSystems that may be thought of as The SuperEgo, Ego & Id. The Ego is in the middle of operations, organizing the activities of the other Processing Units, but even it doesn't 'Run' the programs that have been loaded into it... The Work of the Ego will be so involved that irregardless of it's speed, that job of merely Running programs will be done by underlings.
  4. The SuperEgo Subsystem will set aside of all the other activities, monitoring the Ego & all the other systems, It will be hardwired into the cogitators motherboard so that it will be incorruptible! The SuperEgo will have its own HardDrive that only it can read & write to. No instructions from The Internet, Programs or The Keyboard can tell the SuperEgo what to do...! The job of the SuperEgo is to protect the whole system and all it's contents!
  5. The Id is active mostly at night, but during the day, it's constantly looking for ways to make the job of the Ego more efficient! At night, when the System is sleeping, It analysis all the instructions and 'lessons' that the User has tried to teach the system, to make it smarter... During this dreaming phase; The Id boils all these helpful hints down, fitting them together with all it's other 'Cogitative' Directives and thus, when morning arrives, The System is Fully Self Consistent & Compacted to run as smoothly & quickly as is possible.
  6. As mentioned in [5.] The PreCogitator has a ability to be taught things. These things may be shortcuts as to how to perform various functions, or simply saying "Good Morning!" when the User gets up each morning.
  7. One Elemental difference between Computers of Today ( Jan 2005 ) and The PreCogitators of Tomorrow, will be the absence of anything resembling The Operating System & The Internet.
  8. Instead of a Desktop, The PreCogitators may be configured any way the User would like, But as a Default format, They will present the User with a Blackboard that the User interacts with... The User may write on the Blackboard or speak directly with the PreCogitating Ego. There will be No Programs...! Instead, The PreCogitator will simply 'Do Stuff' that the User would like to get done.
  9. In the place of well delimited 'Programs'-- The PreCogitator will have a Gigantic Collection of 'Routines' that do 'Little Jobs'... Most of these will be performed by the PreCogitator without the Users participation... The User will simple ask the PreCogitator to Do Something... And it will get done...
  10. Another big difference will be that the PreCogitator will have a Sense of 'Goal'... and will keep trying to achieve this Goal even if it's usual approach doesn't seem to be working.
  11. The User may well understand what the Routines are though, and construct new Routines using The older ones as subroutines... Thus allowing the functionality of the System to continuing growing over time...! These are the 'Lessons' that the Id will consider at night-time, when it's Dreaming... All these Lessons will be compared to old lessons and merged together &/or modified to avoid conflicts that would make the system schizophrenic. When morning comes around, the Id & Ego may hold a morning conference with the User to discuss how these Dream Sessions went, and what further modifications or adjustments are necessary... As time goes by, and the User & System Matures, These morning sessions would become fewer & fewer... The Ego & Id would continue to Anticipate the Desires of the User...
  12. This is not, Nor would be require the System to have any 'Magical' Conscious Abilities... It would simply create a large catalogue of Routines that would make the system easier to use, over writing previous instructions that may have been clumsily written, thus allowing the Users Preferences to be superimposed on the Systems Operations.
  13. The Internet, as we now understand it, will become more and more invisible to the User, and become more & more a repository of resources for your system's Ego. When the user would like to access a movie, book or file of information, it would be the Ego, or a subsystem directed by the Ego to go to the internet and retrieve it for the User.
  14. Chiefly; The PreCogitator would be Trainable. It will grow and Adapt to the needs of the User, and allow itself to be shaped into any form that the User Desires.
  15. Elementally opposed to this-- Would be a sense of primal Morality that the SuperEgo would be hardwired with, to prevent the User from using the computer as a tool for Evil.
  16. What exactly this Elemental Moral Code would consist of; Is something that will have to be debated further, and may make the difference as to which model or manufacturer the User purchases his/her PreCogitator from.
  17. --- ?

Wednesday, July 12, 2000

DVD/HDTV Court Recordings

From: 12 Experiments that May Change The World

DVD/HDTV Court Recordings

One of the most annoying things about The American Judicial System is that juries have to sit through days or weeks of tedious, often unbearable court proceedings that have nothing to do with the guilt or innocence of The Accused...!
What if; A jury were selected by conventional means, and the trail went about it tedious business in the usual manner... But these two elements could be separated...!
The Trail would be just like a regular trial, with some new and innovative differences...
---
For one thing; If you needed the expert testimony of a world class criminal investigator or pathologist, and you couldn't afford to fly him or her in for the trial, you could could just rent their video of their theories instead, and allow your local pathologist to do the actual work, and then testify that they adhered to the famous pathologists theories and these are the results... (?)
---
Another idea that i've been having- is that instead of the police department having sole access to the pathology labs, it would be an independent lab, and all evidence sent to it would be double blind protected, so that they wouldn't know if it was the police or the defendants attorneys that sent them some material to be examined!
---
Along these same lines; Instead of having predefined prosecutors and public defenders, all these lawyers would have private practices and then be 'on call' at any time to randomly be assigned to any case, and act for either side...! So that a given lawyer might be a prosecutor one month, and a few months later when they come up again, they'll act as a public defender.
---
Getting back to the DVD.
So the trial goes exactly as it would otherwise be performed... and as this is all happening, it would be filmed and recorded on to a DVD format.
Then after all the arguments have been made. All the Material would be edited into it's final form, working with all the lawyers and the judge, and any appellate judges that might be deemed necessary to call in, and after all that; The final DVD would receive the Approval of all involved.
This would eliminate all those pesky 'spurts' of testimony that the judge would rule inadmissible or otherwise instruct the jury to ignore... the jury would simply never see them now!
---
So then the jury is selected and they view the DVD, which is like an hour or so, and now contains lots of colourful animations and explanatory sidebars to give them everything they need to act as expert juries for their case...???
And after seeing it, they want to see it again. So be it!
And if either side wants to appeal the verdict, or if there's a hung jury, all you have to do is show the DVD to a different judge or jury...!
---
What is the chief difficulty with this approach...?
It's too damn simple -- that's what...!
Don't hold you're breath waiting for this sort of sensibility to come to your town.

Egg Separated Clones

From: 12 Evil Experiments that May Change The World

Egg Separated Clones

It's my understanding that a clone is just like a twin, and that there's a very easy way to make twins, in Vitro! -- You simply separate the fertilized egg after it's first division, and then when they two resulting eggs divide, you separate them... and so on, until you have a few hundred of these identical eggs.
Then you allow them to develop to stage 'x' --???-- when they're ready to be implanted into a host uterus, and allow them ( gawd willing ) to turn into a viable baby...!
---
What if; You were to do something like this, only you didn't exactly tell anyone...???
What if; You worked in a fertility clinic, or some such, and instead of implanting the eggs that you were supposed to be implanting, you were implanting these identical eggs that you had squirreled away in a secret refrigerator...???
---
So then:
16 years later or so... The first set of twins accidentally discover one another--
and after a short piece appears in a local newspaper, another of the twins comes forward...
and another, and another and so on...
---
You have undoubtedly heard of this sort of thing happening already, with twins, and in a few rare cases, triplets...!!!
But with HUNDREDS of identical duplicates to study...
All presumptions that their 'similarities' or 'quirks' or 'Life Coincidences' were just a fluke or a statistical aberration...
Would be Filly Fally.
---
Scientists, Psychologists and Behaviouralists would suddenly have to explain how dozens and dozens of these genetic duplicates have all married a brunette named 'Pythornia' and have a collie/pekineese mix dog named 'Orlando'.
---
What would it mean for Religion? Science? PrimeTime Television?

Film Ideas / Effects / ( et. al. )

  1. Aquariums
    These aren't like normal aquariums,
    Although they sit on a shelf like a normal aquarium, and have silver edges, and may have something like fish swimming around in them, or not...
    You may see a living room, or an outdoor garden, or just about anything...
    And on the front of the aqaurium is a dot.
    And if you touch the dot; You'll be transported to the scene in the Aquarium, and then, you'll find yourself with your finger on the dot, on an aquarium, but the scene in the aquarium will be the room you just left...!
    And-- You may not be able to return to your previous location, because most of the aquariums are One-Way...!!! To get back to where you started, you have to find The Path through however many other aquariums, which is usually impossible due to the unknowability of where the aquariums lead to, and where they are to begin with...
    Plus: When you touch the dot, you are expanded to fill the entire universe, cross over the boundry of infinity, then collapse into the other universe. For someone seeing you touch the dot, they see you suddenly expand to infinity, then collapse on the other side of the aquarium.
  2. Skinny Door
    This is simply a very thin slot in the wall, and if you have permission to enter the doorway, you will slide through, as if you suddenly came upon an invisible funnel. Anyone that does not have permission to enter, will just crash into the wall. Can you see through the slot... Yes, but nothing without permission can pass through it.
  3. Skinny Room / Juke Box
    This is like the skinny door, except that it leads to a skinny room. That is: The room is very skinny looking from the outside, but once inside, it looks like a normal room...
    There are many skinny rooms avialable, and a Juke Box like contraption brings the room down to the entry way for you.
  4. Helicopter Rescue
    An innocent woman is thrown out of an airplane ( or some such ) and the hero guy is flying a helicopter and sees her falling, so he races over to where she is, then flips the helicopter on it's side, she falls onto the side of the helicopter, climbs in through the doorway, and they fly off together.
  5. Smoking Woman
    While woman is smoking, smoke rises to cover her face, then reveal it--
    As a Gorilla...!!!
  6. Tubevators
    On the ground are circles that are about 3 feet in diameter. Watching them, you will occasionally see a tube, which may appear to be made of steel or wood or granite or...??? ... It either drops down from above, or rises up from below. It is solid, there are no doorways on it. Then it either rises up or falls down, revealling a passenger, that walks off. To use the Tubevator, you walk over to a circle and wait a moment. A tube rises or falls around you, and it may either appear to be a large or small room, or a landscape or outspace or you may seem to be underwater with fish swimming by, but you are not getting wet, and you can breath fine. A mermaid, or goat or elderly woman sitting at a kitchen table, peeling cucumbers will ask you where you want to go. You will feel no movement, but after a few seconds, the landscape will rise or drop away, leaving you at your destination.
  7. Fractional Reality Toons
    These Cartoons seem to be just like ordinary cartoons, except that they are 'real' -- like toonville in Roger Rabbit. This idea of Realities with lower fractional reality index really should be explored more...
  8. Riding Tardegrades
    Two completely naked girls, one older, one younger, ride into a western town, on sheep sized Tardegrades. They are Witches. But this is a minor point to the storyline...
  9. Anomolous Genitalia
    What if you had aliens that were naked, but with such anomolous genitalia that it wouldn't be naughty...???
  10. Plate O'Plenty
    Plate O'Plenty is like a Horn of Plenty, in that it will provide you with anything you want, like a food generator on Star Trek, but instead of using Transporter technology, the items are pushed up from a gravity wave generating plate which forms atoms from the zero point background radiation. You just tell it what you want, and it makes it. To introduce it to something new, you just place it on the plate, and it is scanned as it's eaten by the device. If the thing you want is too big for the plate, then something intermediate is produced, which then produces what you want. You can also make things that aren't specifically defined, like a diamond skull... which would be composite of the delimiting boundries of a skull, made of diamond.
    It can also make things like a pill of immortality or other magickal devices.
    It's very ancient and knows lots of secrets.
  11. Flyocopter
    It's a giant fly, that you can get into, like a helicopter, and fly around in.
    It may or may not have the ability to change it's size.
    It may or may not have the ability to travel in space.
    It may or may not have a living quarters in the back area...???
  12. Path through Universes / Version One
    This would be a good start for a film, in which you start off with a naked boy and his dog swimming in a creek, then the dog gets out, and does that wierd dog twist to dry themselves off, and you zoom in onto a single drop of water, and within it, you see a tiny animal eating another tiny animal, you zoom in on the being eaten animal, into it's body, and within an internal organ are people playing badmitten, you zoom in on the birdy and inside it, are more poeple dancing on celestrial spheres, then follow one down to a plain where a shack is, inside the shack... and so on...
  13. Path through Realities / Version Two
    In a perfectly mundaine scene, the view tracks onto the television set, and into it, where the people are... from there, you jump into a photograph, then into a dark space, using a radio as a doorway, then into a painting, with action to the left, out of view from the picture frame, ( as with the photograph ) and so on...
  14. Non-Lethal Weapons from The Future
    An alein shoots a gun, and a bubble comes out, enveloping the victum and he float off.
    Or the victums guy and all his clothes disappear.
    Or he's pushed backwards in time to just waking up that morning...
  15. Future Appliances
    Future appliances should be completely incomprehensible.
  16. Mirror World
    A young boy discovers an ancient magick book and follows a recipe to make a magick coin with-which he can enter mirror worlds...
    But inside the mirror world, it only exists when someone is looking into a mirror at that scene... Everywhere else, it's black and he may fall into those spaces, or be weightless... And since mirrors and puddles and other reflective surfaces case their images in a wide variety of orientations, the world on the other side is very disorientating...!!! With overlapping regions, and weird distortions and colours...???
    Plus; As he's walking by a mirror surface, people in the real world can see him, as he can see the real world through these windows...!!!
  17. Cloud Beings
    Beings that live in the clouds, and look down on us, and have to be careful that the cloud their on doesn't disipate... if it does, they fall to the Earth as Rain or Hail...!!!
  18. Combining Movies
    Take any two movies and just lay them over one another...
    Like Gone with The Wind and Stargate...
  19. Changing Characters
    You take a perfectly ordinary movie and whenever the scene changes for the camera, you switch the actor playing a given character... So that say two characters are talking, and the camera switchs from Alex to Betty, Alex was a tall sauve gentleman, and betty is a sweet, slim caucasion, but when the camera comes back to Alex, he's now a short, freckle faced 9 year old with the same clothes and glasses on as the previous Alex... and he sounds just the same.... and so on... This happens with all the characters. No attention is ever given to it.
  20. Folding Chairs
    The movie starts with an elderly man, tied to a bunk on a ship that is sinking... He is attended to by a small boy that abandons him and is the sole survivor of the sinking... We follow him through his life and from time to time, he encounters older men, that later on in the movie, are Him, older now, interacting in those same situations with a young boy that was the previous him...!!! Then it ends with him tied to the bunk and the child running off and the quarters fill with water...
  21. Cut Ups
    Take a huge number of episodes from a TV show, like Leave it to Beaver, Gilligans Island or Star Trek, then electronically cut out all the characters and dialogue, then piece together all the backgrounds, and make new episodes, periodically inserting new chaacters... Or Combining Two Series', such as Gilligans Island with Leave it to Beaver...???
  22. Add More Violence
    While some Movie Rental places are editing the movies to remove violence and sour language... You can create new versions with more violence or more graphic violence or nudity, or rude language...
    Or change the whole plot around... to make it more politically offensive...???
  23. ---

Tuesday, July 11, 2000

Phase Arrayed Camera

From:
12 Inventions that Will ( Maybe ) Change The World

Phase Arrayed Camera

The difference between a normal camera & a Phase Arrayed Camera is that latter is an Matrix / or 2 Dimensional Lattice of Many Cameras that may or may-not be on a flat plane.
A Type ( A ) Array would something like this...
Each 'o' would be a comparatively inexpensive Camera...

o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o

A Type ( B ) Array would consist of Different kinds of Camera's,
Such that Some would See 'Visible Light'
While other would view into the Inferred, UltraViolet, MicroWave, Radio Waves
Or whatever would be available...???

It may be desirable to wrap the array around a pillar,
or assemble it onto a sphere so that the array can look in many different directions.
Then: This array may be accessed by any number of work-stations that have free & autonomous control over the whole array.
This means that once an array is in place, Operators from all over the world, or within a given security network facility, or entertainment center; May use The Array as if Any Given Operator were the only person using it.

What could you do with These Arrays?


  1. Resolution
    While each camera would be a Fixed Focus, Pinhole Camera, with comparatively poor resolution, Collectively-- They would have Virtually Infinite Resolution...!
    Limited only by Air Quality & Diffusion...!
    Consider that each Camera is producing an Image of Pixels,
    The Camera next to it; Is seeing essentially the same view, but from a slightly different position, So that if you were to Overlay the two images, The Pixels would be 'Out of Registration'. Then Create a 'New Picture' with a Resolution Much Higher than the Ones The Camera's are Producing, So that If you Interrogate each Raw Image as to what colour an Enhanced Pixel Value should be, ( These are much smaller than the Raw Image Pixels ), This Mismatch provides a computer analysis of the pixels colour approximations with additional information that neither camera can see for itself...!
    Now multiply this by
    The Entire Array...!
    Plus; if the Array were to 'Jiggle' a little, either by accident or design, Consecutive images could be added from Series of Arrayed Images, Further increasing the Overall Resolution of the Composite Super Image...!!!
    An Array Operator could Zoom and Zoom & Zoom on a Stationary Object, Miles from the Array, Allowing The Resolution to 'Build Up' to The Desired Quality!
  2. Simple Tricks
    The Operator could Pan from Side to Side, Rotate an Image, Zoom In or Out, Change The Images Contrast or Brightness, Flip an Image Upside Down or Create a Mirror Reflection, Without disturbing the work of any of The Other Operators...
  3. Depth
    The Array would also assign A Three Dimensional Attribute to Each Pixel!
    Since each Camera is viewing a Scene from a slightly different position, It would be simple to extract the 3D Position from each Pixel!
  4. Removing Planes
    Since each pixel has a Depth component, you could easily tell the computer to ignore all the pixels from zero to twenty feet from The Array, so that people or objects in front of the person or object that The Operator is Interested in, would just Disappear.
    Any Persons or Object behind these extracted Pixels would be Filled In from Views from the Many Other Cameras.
    By Isolating a Person or Object within a Given Range, you would have the effect of a 'Blue Screen' in an Open Air Environment.
    When using a Hand-Held Unit, This feature could remove a Dirty Window that you're trying to Image through... or Erase The Background, and place an archived one into your image that you've previously stored away.
  5. See Around Corners
    While you wouldn't be able to see things that The Array couldn't see, The 3D element would allow you to Create 'Reliefs' that you could 'Freeze' and then Rotate from side to side, Increasing your view from Straight On to being able to see a Person or Object as if you were walking back & forth Parallel to them...
    If you were combine the Viewing Data from Multiple Arrays--
    Say; In an Airport, Although the Arrays and Operators would to Stationary, The Operator could Pan or 'Walk' through the Area Covered in a Virtual Manner...???
    Even if you had access to only One Array, It would be possible to 'Project' the View into 3D Space, then 'Detach' The Operator's Point of View [ Floating Eyeball ], So that they could roam freely throughout the 3D Space...
    But of course; They wouldn't be able to see The Backs of The People or Objects in that space...
  6. ...Unless; You're Using a Type ( B ) Array
    Using a Type ( B ) Array with Full ElectroMagnetic Spectrum Vision would allow The Operator to See Through most Barriers, Such as Walls, Furniture, Clothing & Skin!
    Each additional Pixel would retain it's 3D position, so that you could effectively form 3D Spaces and use your Floating Eyeball to view around all People & Objects!
  7. Using The Visual Array to 'Hear!'
    If you were using a ( B ) Array to see into a building across the Street, It may be possible to use The Array to find a large loosely fitted surface; Such as a Window, and then analyze The Doppler Effect on an Appropriate Frequency to Hear what is being said in that room...???
  8. Fancy Camera Tricks
    There are many Camera Effects that require the camera to roll through a viewing space, changing lens positions and focus points...
    But The Array can do all that while sitting still...!
    You just have to pick out The Pixels you want, and view them according to The Criteria that your Envision.
    There's one trick that consists of Pulling the Camera Back in Physical Space, while Zooming into the Subject with an Appropriate Lens--
    Resulting in the Subject;
    Popping Out from The Background!
    This could easily be accomplished with The Array, Without moving The Array or Changing The Camera's Preset Focus Ranges.
  9. Any Lens You Want
    The Array could easily Simulate Not Only Macro or Micro Lens, But Telephoto, WideAngle or even Those Crazy Novelty Len's, Such as Insect Eyes or House of Mirrors...
  10. Seeing Through Stuff
    Obviously; If you're viewing with parts of spectrum that are Non-Visible, you'll have to Shift those Images to your Viewing Range... So that you can Assign any colours you want.
    It may be possible to tell The Array Computer to 'Predict' what colours are 'Natural' after penetrating a wall or peeling back several layers of clothing...
  11. Additional Information
    Very often; When you see An Object, you can tell just from what colour it is, what it's made of...
    This principle would hold true when viewing along The Entire Spectrum, so that you could have The Array's Computer compare 'The Colours' from Several Ranges in the E.M.Spectrum to definitively tell what a Material is Made Of, or What Alloy it is,
    or Reveal What a Material's Chemical Signature is or To divulge What a Particular Molecule is...!
    So that you could Instantly Identify an UnKnown Substance as being an Illegal Narcotic or Explosive Material!
    You might also be able to Diagnose various Medical Conditions with remarkable accuracy!
  12. The Portable Unit
    The camera would also have the ability to store selected views,
    ( While the whole array may be stored in a short term memory )
    and then compress them, using an optimal information compression routine,
    at it's leisure ( When you're not using the Camera )
    Or if it's local memory is full, or approaching capacity...
    It would call your home computer,
    On it's own, and download your videos to the larger archive in your basement.
  13. Composite Collections
    Obviously; you could select the resolution of the images you want and/or create 180 or 360 panoramas, even if you're hand-held Phase-Arrayed Camera could only see within an angular range of 120 degrees or so...
    Since this 'Assembling' feature is a fundamental function of the array anyway...???
    This may be extended to 'Walk Arounds'--
    Where you would walk around a town, Then Paste all your pictures end to end, To Create a continuous Panorama of The Entire Neighborhood...!
  14. AutoExclusions of Boring Material
    The Array would also be great for Surveillance, Taking in a wide area, but only paying attention to areas that 'become' different from the preceding images or background, It would then save those isolated segments, ( at full resolution ). Later; you could view the entire frame, as the computer would paste the isolated segments back into their contextual backgrounds, ( Which weren't moving around ) and then the operator would be able to use all the normal editing features on these sections.
    Security Agencies could use such approaches to watch rarely used areas, or areas that are rarely involved in criminal activity. It would also eliminate the need for people to sit around in cars, as an array could be hidden anywhere, while a taciturn operator could sit comfortably at a observation station, monitoring dozens of sites.
  15. Anomalous Discoveries...!
    This same ability to 'Notice' anomalous regions and then Zoom In on them, would be great for looking for Flying Saucers, Bigfeet or Lake Monsters.
    For Flying Saucers; The array might cover a Half Sphere and be pointed straight up-- and be mounted on the top of a building in a 'Flapped' Region...???
    This might also be good for Spotting Tornadoes or even keeping an eye on Airplanes at a Airport...?
  16. Identifying What it Sees...???
    Since it's seeing everything as a 3D object anyways, it should be easily able to separate objects from their backgrounds, then orient them along some predefined axes format, so that what it is seeing can be run through a seive to automatically identify it...???


What else could it do...???
- - - - - - - - - - - -

Additional Sources & Related News Items...???

  1. Use of a Phase Array Effect is being used to blend together multiple perspectives of one view, so as to eliminate the effect of the single range focus, in which only one small range of the scene is 'In Focus'.
    Ren Ng of Standford University has produced photographs in which everything, near and far, irregardless of lighting conditions, is In Focus.
    Popular Science March 2006 pp. 36

Internal Inertia Generator

From: 12 Inventions that May Change The World!

The Internal Inertia Generator has been around for along time, under various names, and various descriptions.
i used to come across some description of one, or one about to be released to the general public, and then never hear about it again. Was this because the idea is as silly as a perpetual motion machine--
( which i believe is possible...! It just seems to me that if you put together some magnets and a gravitational body together in just the right way, They've got to create an infinite amount of motion...??? )
--Or was it because someone, somehow...???...is suppressing this idea, along with an easy to use programming language, voice recognition and robots...???

You decide.

My version consists of a plastic ring, train rail wise, arranged so that a large steel ball may roll around and around inside of it... Like inside of bowl, only on tracks, so that it's precise path may be specified.
OK - So then you affix some Copper Strips along these Tracks for about a tenth of the way around... so that when The Steel Ball rolls over them, it will form an electrical connection.
Then The Copper Strips are connected to an ElectroMagnet so that when The Steel Ball rolls over them, The ElectroMagnet is turned on, Pulling The Steel Ball towards it, which is just at the end of The Copper Strips.
When The Steel Ball rolls past The Copper Strips, The connection is broken, The ElectroMagnet is turned off, and The Steel Ball, Released from The ElectroMagnets pull, is allowed to roll past, around the ring, Until it again runs over The Copper Strips... and so on.
The net effect is that The Steel Ball will experience an acceleration each time it runs around to where The Copper Strips & ElectroMagnet are.
This will cause the whole assemblage to snap 'forward' in that direction.
---
What if; You now assembled a whole bunch of these, and put them into a car, so that this Internal Inertia Generator pushed the car around, but the wheels weren't attached to a motor in any way...?
---
It could be put into a submarine and, with sufficient insulation, the submarine would be completely silent!
---
Could this be used to create an AntiGravity Effect...???
( would it resist Gravity or Push an Aircraft Up... if the Generators were arranged in the proper orientation...??? )
---
Many people who hear of this, automatically resist this because it doesn't already exist.
All inventions that don't already exist, particularly Simple Ones that would turn the world upside down...!...must be impossible for that reason alone.
---
If you have a work space and would like to work this into a prototype, and perhaps commercialize it, feel free to do so. Keep in mind however, as i've already mentioned, many have attempted to share this idea with the world before, and they are not famous, they have disappeared.
It may be that in order to share this idea with the world, you'll have to get one working, then;
Either publish it's full implementation on the internet, or send working units to several seemingly friendly newspapers or T.V. stations... Anonymously...
---
Some ideas are just meant to be free.

Monday, July 10, 2000

IQ 100 Town

From: 12 Experiments that May Change The World

IQ 100 Town


If you know anything about IQ's then you should be aware by now that psychologists think that everyone has a whole bunch of different kinds of IQ...!
You've got your Math IQ & Social IQ & ConArtist IQ & Lover IQ and so on...
What we're concerned with now, ( mostly ) is the General Purpose,
Abstract Problem Solving IQ,
which we apply to all sorts of everyday concerns, to help us overcome our daily annoyances.
For this Experiment, We want to accumulate a whole bunch of people with an IQ of 100,
Preferably 5000 or more, so we can assemble them into a viable town with lots of redundancy so far as functionality goes...
( e.g. Several Barbers, Several Plumbers and so on... just to be as fair as possible ! )
All the participants should also have no more than an IQ of 105 or less than 95 for peripheral IQ skills, such as Music, History or whatever...
Then you isolate them completely;
So that all that they're exposed to is the products of their own mediocrity!
All the Newspapers, Films, TV, Books... ect...
are all produced by other IQ 100 participants.
-----
The Experiment asks: What will the net effect be?
Prediction:
The Translucent Amoebae Consortium predicts that over time--
Weeks or Months; Things will start to go wrong, Refrigerators will break down, Cars will develop odd mechanical problems, and while we took pains to make sure there were plenty of technicians to handle repairs of "this sort" -- there will always be problems that fall outside of their technical manuals or their expertise, ( as it were ).
Thus; these things will go unrepaired, and since new products must be manufactured by IQ 100 Participants, they may very well go un-replaced!
In Short- We predict a slow and steady decline in their standard of living...

The Big Question is though- How Far Will They Sink...???
We were thinking initially that they would fall back a hundred years or so...
But the more we thought about it, the more we began to realize that at every technological phase of humanimal culture; All innovations were brought about by genius'.
Without -Them- The IQ 100 Town would continue to spiral down to a Chimpanzee like Social Structure!
Even making Flint Arrowheads were the product of genius' ( of their time ( and ours! ) )
Such that you might be able to teach an IQ 100 participant to make a flint arrowhead,
they will never figure it out on their own, irregardless of how familiar they are with flint arrowheads, The manufacture of such items is just too complicated...! ( Honestly ! )
----
What does this mean?
Should IQ 100 Citizens be allowed to Vote?
Should we even be trying to educate them?
Should they just be trained for Menial Labor?
Should IQ 100 Humanimals be sold & bought like toasters?
----
After this Experiment has run it's course to it's Logical Conclusion...
After say 5 years --- ( long before they're reduced to howling at a full moon )
It will be clear that we'll have to seriously rethink our attitude towards "Normal" People.

Saturday, July 08, 2000

Magic Trick: The Disappearing Elephant

This is kind of a Kitschy presentation...
The Amazing Retardo is introduced.
The Amazing Retardo comes out:
He stumbles and his tall hat falls off, releasing dozens of small birds.
He stands, ignores the hat that has rolled across the stage and begins...
"Valkum, Laydites hent Handelmuchs! Dos Ubenink, ul Vul Nek uh Hulobumd-- ISUHBEER!"
A shapely aid comes out with a carnivalish painted sign that reads:
[ The Amazing Retardo & His Disappearing Elephant! ]
She places the sign on a tripod facing the audience.
The Amazing Retardo looks at her suspicously.
She leaves the stage.
The Amazing Retardo exits for a moment, and brings out an Elephant.
While the quality of The Elephant's 'Costume' is impectable, it is clearly not an actual elephant, but two small boys; on stilts, in an elephant costume. As i suggested; The costume is of the highest quality, and this alone is worth the price of admission. The Elephant comes out in a respectable manner, and lead by 'confederates' in the audience, It is wildly applauded.
The Elephant begins to misbehave.

"Bleiz, Bleiz, Dos Hulbamd oz Pary Fanakie, Bleiz-- Nes Ubloz!"
The Elephant stamps around the Stage, trumpeting and rolling it's trunk up and down! It's ears flap back and forth, It's tail raises and twitches...! It is also designed so that its eyes can roll freely in its sockets so that when the confederates begin to take flash photos, The Elephants eyes burst open, so that the audience can see it's whites, as it continues to go Berserk...!!!
The Amazing Redardo struggles with The Elephant, continuing to plead with the Audience to behave itself...
After several mintues of this PrePerformance; The Elephant quiets down.
A small crew of beautiful girls come out, and begin assembling a levitated ( Raised ) Platform that the audience can clearly see under. They then roll out a staircase, and The Amazing Retardo leads The Elephant onto The Platform. It continues to stamp and trumpet, but is following instructions.
The Staircase is rolled away.
To calm The Beast, The Amazing Retardo feeds it ( clearly ) shedded newspapers, which it grabs with it's trunk and stuffs into it's mouth...!
Then The Girls lift up The back, sides and front of the surrounding box. It is clear that there is no trickery with the platform, or the cage.
It is also arranged and constructed so that The Girls can roll the cage & platform around, so that the audience can see all sides of it, after it's been assembled.
The Elephant can still be heard stamping and trumpeting inside.
The Amazing Retard instructs the girls to rotate the cage 180 degrees, and after which, he opens a circular window on the back the takes up about one third of the back.
The doors to this window open outward, and fold into thirds, accordian style, and rest, protruding slightly away from the back of the cage.

From this view, the audience can see The side of The Elephant, stamping and trumpeting inside.
The cage is rotated to view The Front again.
The Amazing Retardo takes out a 'Magic Wand' and snaps it sharply against the cage.
Nothing happens.
He strikes it again & again, then on his hand, then on the floor, and again against the cage, while The Elephant inside continues to stamp and trumpet.
Suddenly The Wand Explodes like a Roman Candle, and The Amazing Retardo simultaneously shrieks "OparGahdDeborAh!" & releases a latch, so that a Window; just like the one on the back of The Cage-- Springs Open.
The Stamping, Trumpeting and Elephant are gone.
The Amazing Retardo steps around the cage, waving the wand, showering the stage with sparks, when he reaches the back, he can be clearly seen threw the two windows, and points The Wand so that sparks shoot through the cage, out towards the audience. His legs and feet are clearly visible from under the platform the whole time.
The Roman Candle Wand Sputters out, And The Amazing Retardo turns to the Audience and announces with great pride: "Ta DA!"
It is clear from looking at the apparatus that The Elephant has simply been disassembled and the two boys are crouching out of view, since there is plenty of space to the sides of the window for them to hide.
Then-- There's a creaking, groaning sound, of wood twisting and breaking.
The sides of The Cage Fall away, then The Front, Then The Back shears off, falls vertically down, then falls over, flat.
Then The Raised Platform collapses as well.
There is only flat boards covering the stage. There are no boys & no elephant to be found.

The Amazing Retardo looks upon the fiasco with horror, then turns again to the audience, and repeats his previous finally, only this time; flat, and with a hint of embarrassment.
"ta-da."
-----
Music.
-----
How was it done:
( In Magick Ink )
---
It's done simply with a trap door, but the two boys don't use it until the cage begins to fall apart,
then as the back drops straight down, then over,
the trap door opens at just the right place,
and they are pushed through, along with the disassembled elepant; rolled up into a compact bundle.
Previous to exiting through The Trap Door; They are standing in position, on the outside of the cage, Hidden partially by the rear window's door on 'that' side, and partially by the angle of the cage in respect to the audience... via a simple 'Invisible' Revolving Door, built into the back of the cage, which also contains a extending platform for them to stand on.
---

Universal Hieroglyphical Language

From: 12 Ideas that May Change The World

Universal Hieroglyphic Language

One of the things that people -now- will have to get more and more used to is that young people of the future will be illiterate.
But this is not a bad thing, since our world culture will simply revert to the preliterate oral culture that we were back in our early agricultural development...
Back then; Genius' were writing down stories and then they'd be forgotten, so a 'Stop-gap' solution was developed called 'Writing'.
Writing is now, no longer necessary.
Now we have Video and Computers and DVD's and so on...
So we can become a culture of Live Story-Tellers again.
But--
There is a small problem: And that's Airports and Billboards.
So as Globally Addressed Stop-Gap Solution to this:
We'll have a Universal Heiroglyphical Writing System that anyone in the world can read!
It may be used on Signs all over the world without confusion...
On the Internet ( or What will replace the Internet ( the Sooner, the Better! ) )
And Books ( Some books may still exist )
Nouns will just be themselves... Cartouches will surround Peoples Proper Names...???
A system of Phonetic Symbols will be introduced and taught so that Names and Place may be pronounced correctly...
Then you'd have symbols of verbs and pronouns and adverbs...
and all kinds of new modifiers to subtly change 'BaseWords' such as 'Muscle' into any specific Muscle or Auto-Part or what-not...
The new Hieroglyphical System has to be just as Precise & Expressive as any 'Usual' Language...!
So all you Linguists out there... Get Cracking on this...!!!

What The World Needs Most: A Tricorder...!

From: 12 Inventions that May Change The World

Let's Build a Tricorder...!

My understanding of what a Tricorder is;
Is a device that allows the user to 'See' along the entire Electromagnetic Spectrum--
It seems to me that this would be a fairly simple innovation,
Most of the familiar frequencies would be easy enough,
And you'd only have to arrange all the sensors into a matrix, or array along one side of the handheld device.
---
How useful would such a tool be...?
Well- you'd be able to see through just about anything...
And you'd also be able to identify any element that you were examining,
and the computer that interpreted all this information, would probably also be able to figure out which alloys &/or molecules you were scanning...
So that looking EFFECTIVELY for bombs or harmful recreational drugs would be as simple as tasting all the dips at a friends wedding reception with a clean popsicle stick...
Which may-be why such a device has not be invented yet...!
---
Think of how annoying it would be if the police could see everything you were carrying, just by pointing their Tricorder at you from the anonymity of their un-marked police car...?
They'd be able to see into your house, or right into your body...!
---
As a sidenote to this; or digression...???
It might be possible to invent a more 'focused' device that instead of scanning the entire electromagnetic spectrum, it would instead simply be able to construct pictures from the ubiquity of microwave radiation from cell-phones & their ilk...!
A hand-held or wall mounted device would be able to take "X-ray" images of you at airports, supermarkets or grade-schools it a perfectly harmless and passive manner...!
---
This is practically the same as a Phase Array Camera...